After experiencing consecutive days of decline, the PET bottle chip market finally ushered in a long-awaited surge in trading volume in early March. In the first three days of this week, domestic trading volume is expected to exceed 300,000 tons (some orders are still in progress), accounting for about 35-40% of the planned domestic sales volume this month. Among them, the single-day trading volume on Wednesday may exceed 150,000 tons. It brought a little confidence to the fragile market sentiment in the early stage.
So will the market for PET bottle chip remain stable? According to the author's understanding, the market outlook for PET bottle chip during the Spring Festival is quite different. On the one hand, PET bottle chip factories have a large volume of domestic and foreign sales after the Spring Festival. Price concessions are relatively slow during the market readjustment, and they are willing to raise prices. Stronger; on the other hand, some traders tend to promote sales in advance after the holidays due to the large volume of contracts on hand.
However, it can be seen from the recent large-scale replenishment of positions by traders that although some traders wanted to suppress the market through low-price promotions in the early stage, taking the opportunity to affect the selling price of bottle tablet factories and lower the average market price, their determination to be bearish was still insufficient. Once raw material futures recover, the low prices for short orders will quickly converge. In addition, with the decline in market prices, downstream terminal manufacturers have once again shown their willingness to purchase at the end of the year, and have recently taken orders, mostly for the second quarter of 2024.
After two working days this week, the trading volume increased significantly, combined with the recent slight rebound in polyester raw material futures, PET bottle chip factories tend to focus on raising prices in the short term, which may lead to limited operating space for market traders, and there is a high probability of selection. Moderately replenish positions near lows to lock in profits from early orders or receive back-to-back orders to reduce the risk of later replenishment.
In addition, the author believes that we need to pay attention to the impact of the restart of the bottle chip device and the progress of new production capacity on the market. However, based on current understanding, the market supply side is expected to have relatively limited new increments in the first half of the year. The commissioning of new equipment in some factories has been postponed. The main increase may come from the restart of long-term shutdown equipment in the early stage and the increase in the load of production-reduced equipment.
