In 2024, the downstream resumption of work after the Spring Festival could be described as a series of twists and turns, with freezing and rainy weather affecting the return of workers to their posts, and the wish of some bosses to start work early was not effectively realized. However, after the 15th day of the first lunar month, the weather improved, the speed of workers returning to work increased, and the start-up rate of terminal stretching, weaving, printing and dyeing also increased effectively.
As of this week, the downstream start-up rate has returned to a relatively high level.
Jiangsu and Zhejiang, plus spring integrated start-up rebounded to 91%: Xiao Shao, Cixi, Changxing, Taicang, Changshu are above and below 90%. Comprehensive start-up of weaving machine in Jiangsu and Zhejiang rebounded to 80%: water jet weaving machine start-up in Wujiang was on 90%, Changxing and Suzhou were around 90%; warp knitting machine start-up in Haining was around 90%, Changshu was around 80%; circular knitting machine start-up in Xiaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaoshaos, Changshu was 3-4%. Printing and dyeing industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang rebounded to 82%: around 80% in Wujiang and Xiaoshao; more than 90% in Suzhou and Changxing; 7-8% in Haining; and around 70% in Changshu.
And in 2023, Jiangsu and Zhejiang add spring, weaving, printing and dyeing of the high level is also in 92%, 85%, 85%, the current load has been very close. Whether the market can be further high, the key mainly depends on the Xiao Shao circular knitting machine market.
Work rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang for adding elasticity, weaving, printing and dyeing (%)
Weaving factory sales, although there is a division, machine type to see, warp knitting, water jet shipments and order atmosphere is better than the circular machine, and circular machine within the relatively better is a single-sided machine, while the double-sided machine and terry machine is relatively weak. Order flow, both domestic and foreign sales, some areas of foreign orders slightly more than expected, the overall atmosphere is relatively good, which will give support for the continued high start-up rate of weaving in March.
Although the equity inventory of polyester mills is still on the rise, the raw material inventory at the end of the line is declining rapidly. Feedback from individual filament mills suggests that the high level of stocks in warehouses has eased, and that the composite polyester social inventory of polyester mills' equity stocks + downstream raw material stockpiles, as summarized by CCF, has begun to move downward.
Polyester Filament Yarn Inventory Trend (Days)
Meanwhile, polyester filament yarn mill prices have been firmer than raw materials since March, and cash flow has been high.
Polyester Yarn Cash Flow Reference (RMB/ton)
The high efficiency of the polyester yarn plant will be supported by the high start-up rate, while the inventory may reach an inflection point. Up to now, the combined load of polyester yarns has increased to 83.5%, and the load of straight spinning filament yarns has increased to 91.4%; with the restarting of the combined 320,000-ton installations of Xianglu and Hengli and the further repairs of the load of some installations, the straight spinning is yet to break 92%.
