Recently, the polyester bottle market after the Spring Festival feedback from various segments is different, demand recovery also shows differentiation. Last week I visited some of the upstream and downstream scale enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester bottle chips, involving the north of Zhejiang, Suzhou and Haining area.
From the field visits, 2024 polyester bottle downstream terminal recovery time is delayed one week compared with previous years, but the beginning of March from the beginning of the start-up is more obvious, replenishment action increased one after another. At the same time, due to the pre-shutdown device restart delayed coupled with the slowdown in the progress of the new capacity to put, polyester bottle factory is currently showing a sustained trend of inventory. Because of concerns about the later part of the specification supply tightening, the market mainstream traders once followed the replenishment, supporting the market price basically maintained at 7,000 yuan near.
On the current polyester bottle piece of the largest downstream beverage and packaged water point of view, the current beverage companies packaged drinking water production line basically can be opened full; and fruit juice and carbonated beverages due to the Chinese New Year small peak season has passed, the start of a relative downward adjustment; but individual brands of tea drinks are still in short supply, and will consider continuing to expand the line of production. Sheet, the industry survival of the fittest is more obvious, the region's veteran enterprises to perform better, basically up to 7-8% or so; but according to market feedback, due to the fierce competition of homogenization, in recent years, the emerging factories to start the continuity of the poor, the short-term elimination of the more; and part of the previous go to the middle and high end of the product of the enterprise start poorly, which is the cost and pricing of its high as well as the source of the customer is dispersed to a certain extent directly related to the. In addition to this, the East China region sheet and other enterprises to start relatively better than South China, on the one hand, in recent years, the industrial transfer of orders brought about by the differentiation; on the other hand, due to the market consumption gradually tends to the low-end, South China part of the brand's original raw materials are more inclined to procurement of virgin polyester bottle chips, while the East China enterprises to use the industrial back to the material, recycled materials, such as the proportion of a high proportion of the cost advantage is obvious.
The following are a few of the most talked about issues in this visit:
Q1, polyester bottle factory in the first half of the new capacity to put how?
New capacity in the first half of the year is mainly concentrated in Yisheng Hainan and Dalian two plants, a total of 2.6 million tons of plans. However, because the first set of 600,000 tons of Hainan started once more problems, so the first half of the remaining two sets of 600,000 tons of devices temporarily put on hold, initially expected to be postponed to the third quarter; Dalian 1 350,000 tons have been put on the Spring Festival period, and the end of March, the remaining 350,000 tons of Dalian 2 is about to go into operation, the 3 700,000 tons is expected to be put into operation at the end of the second quarter near the end of the production; in addition, Sichuan Hanjiang 300,000 tons of the current progress of the commissioning has not yet been made; Xinjiang Tunhe 100,000 tons has been put into production in early March out of material; Xinjiang Yipu 120,000 tons put into production again encountered local PTA plant stopping maintenance, still in communication, for the success of the March put into production. The previous production of Anhui Haoyuan 600,000 tons of new capacity is currently due to continue to open a 300,000-ton production line, so the capacity base is only 300,000 tons counted.
Q2、How is the current sales model of polyester bottle chips factory?
According to the visit to understand, at present, in addition to the individual factory contract proportion of more than 50%, the rest of the polyester bottle factory contract proportion is not large, most of the raw material cost formula or CCF monthly average index premium pricing; and market transactions are still spot price sales, but after several years of integration, the market basically accepts the sales model of the forward premium, margin is generally 10% of the selling price.
Q3、How is the ratio of traders and direct customers of polyester bottle chips factory?
It is understood that the polyester bottle factory normal sales of direct end customers and traders proportion in each 50% or four or six ratios, a few polyester bottle factory direct customers proportion is larger, the trader to take goods only in the vicinity of 10-20% or less than 10%.
Q4、How do the polyester bottle factories and downstream enterprises think about the future market of PET?
Considering the late new capacity to put more, the impact on the market supply is larger, the industry insiders basically for the polyester bottle industry chain view of the cautious short, the future probability is the survival of the fittest, compression of the processing fee of the market. Of course, if crude oil can be a breakthrough in the future, then the absolute price of the industry will gradually go up, more driven by the cost side.
Q5, polyester bottle factory and downstream enterprises on PET on futures view?
After a field visit, I found that compared with the previous two years, bottle factories and downstream enterprises have changed their attitude towards futures listing, and they have started to set up futures research departments or recruited employees with previous experience in futures to participate in the purchasing and sales side.
However, for most of the bottle factories and downstream enterprises, since the traditional spot trading has been the main, even if the buy far futures is a price bidding form, the worries about the futures listing still exists. For example, is not the futures on the price will rise and fall? As a real enterprise, we will not be controlled by off-market capital, etc.? I think this aspect should be the future of the exchange or the industry needs to form a unified concept and actively carry out training and learning of futures and cash business.
Q6: What are the views of polyester bottle factories and downstream enterprises on RPET?
According to my understanding, at present, domestic polyester bottle factories have RPET devices or have the ability to produce RPET, individual enterprises have export orders sales record. And downstream beverage companies, individual has set up an ESG department in advance, and foreign beverage companies to communicate with the research and development. However, bottle factories and downstream enterprises have said that due to the current national policy does not allow for food-grade, and pre-trial samples in the quality of obviously inferior to the original, so more than no large-scale R & D work. In addition, due to the higher cost of RPET, pricing is also significantly higher than the natural polyester bottle products, the market active acceptance is not high, most of the downstream enterprises in Europe and the United States is in the way of the policy end of the subsidies or requirements of the background before they start to increase the proportion of regeneration.
