Recent PTA spot spreads continue to weaken, the current mainstream of March goods in 05-20 ~ 30 near the transaction, to yesterday's March average spread in 05-23, compared with February, a significant decline. Polyester load from 80% after the holidays to the current 89%, why PTA market performance is still so weak?
From the current situation, the spot market liquidity is very abundant, according to CCF statistics, January-February accumulated inventory range reached 1 million tons near. At present, polyester plant inventory is relatively abundant, the recent polyester load is relatively high, but the short-term purchase intention is not high, in addition to the PTA plant and terminal inventory is also at a high level, although some inventory has been sold, but due to the high level of polyester product inventory, polyester plant raw material receiving limited, inventory downward transfer speed is slow.
And from the point of view of expectations, although the recent PTA prices lower, but mainly the cost side of the decline, although crude oil prices are not much change, but the PX price from the end of February 1045 down to 1010 U.S. dollars / ton, PXN from 360 down to 300 U.S. dollars / ton, and PTA, although the inventory pressure is relatively large, but at present the processing differential is still maintained at a neutral level, maintained in the vicinity of 350~450 yuan / ton oscillation! At present, the spot price of PX is lower than the average contract price, and the actual processing difference is higher than the calculated value. As a result, the implementation of PTA's device maintenance is less than expected. Zhongtai 1.2 million tons of equipment has been stopped near 3.11; Yinglex 1.25 million tons of March repair 15 days, 1.1 million tons of unplanned stop, the specific loss to be assessed; Fuhaitron 4.5 million tons of plans to stop 3.21 repair, the other device repair plan is not yet clear. Even according to the average monthly load of 90% of the polyester in March, March is expected to be wide balance.
April Taiwan Chemical 1.5 million tons and Yizheng 3 million tons of new installations are expected to be put into production in March under the vicinity of the new production in April is gradually realized, if the PTA wants to go to the warehouse, then the need for more PTA installations overhaul, but from the current processing difference, repair is expected to be still variable.
Therefore, whether it is a polyester plant or trader segment, speculative demand is low.
In the short term, due to the processing difference is still available, for suppliers and its parking repair to ease the pressure of shipments, rather than lock profits out of the shipment, with the circulation continues to release, is expected to short-term spot spreads are still under pressure. And from the price point of view, the current crude oil oscillation stalemate, and PX oil adjustment logic weakened, and PX is currently higher, but these factors in this wave of decline in the process of gradual realization, the recent PXN stabilized in the vicinity of 300, the PTA benefit also appeared to be compressed. If there is no downturn in demand, the decline is expected to be relatively limited. From the position of foreign capital, JPMorgan long single significant reduction in positions, Qiankun long single reduction in positions, short single increase in positions, do more sentiment weakened, and the current fundamentals and the cost side of the situation for the time being no obvious change, upward drive is also weak. Concerned about later PTA device repair dynamics.
