After the Spring Festival polyester industrial chain market high and low, the mentality is no longer optimistic before the festival, to today, although there is a moderate stabilization, but the market sentiment is still relatively cautious.
First, the post-holiday market demand is expected to be adjusted
One of the reasons for the weakening of market sentiment after the holiday is that demand is less than expected. polyester load in February is expected to continue to revise downward, the pre-holiday inspection and repair program is more than expected increase in post-holiday installation start-up rhythm is slow; terminal start-ups in March resumed one by one, but the procurement atmosphere is not very hot, resulting in market mentality has not yet been repaired, and the polyester load from the high point is still a long way to go.
In fact, this year, many varieties have gone through the pre-holiday optimism to post-holiday expected adjustment process.
Starting from December to January, due to the stage of warming market sentiment, leading to fiber industry chain of various species initiated the spring stocking market (including cotton, cotton yarn to stock market, as early as December that began to start one after another, the viscose industry chain from the middle to the end of December began to appear one after another, polyester, nylon, spandex industry chain of stocking, is largely from the middle to the end of January to start), the market sales atmosphere heated up, and prices have increased in center of gravity. The center of gravity of prices rose.
However, starting in February, the market has turned silent, and post-holiday rain and snow weather led to polyester and terminal recovery rhythm is slow, spring sales have also been delayed, leading to changes in market rhythms, are moderately cooled down for the pre-holiday optimistic expectations.
But after March, from polyester to the terminal segment to see, demand is still improving in the ring, performance from the bullet, loom to printing and dyeing, start-up has not been low, and demand orders as much as possible feedback is not the same, but generally in line with the normal path of seasonal demand, only the production and sales atmosphere is still relatively flat most of the time.
Second, the inventory pressure may be the key to the problem
So far, the immediate pressure on the industrial chain, the key may still lie in the inventory. Including the polyester load of the downward revision of the raw material market decline, purchasing mentality and the atmosphere of weakness, in the final analysis, all come from this.
1, polyester and downstream facing problems
For filament short fiber plant, sales began to fall in early February, the continuous pressure of tired inventory led to more repair plans, post-holiday installations are opening, more than twenty days of inventory led to factory pressure rise; which is more pressure on the short fiber, before the festival on the lack of decent stock market, after the festival inventory pressure is even greater, leading to the start of work to enhance the speed of the obviously slow; bottle chip device opening rhythm is less than expected, also dragged down to some extent the Load.
For the downstream, there is a certain amount of raw materials in stock after the holiday, the original is not in a hurry to buy; after the holiday raw material cost correction, polyester filament yarn price is relatively maintained, leading to its price difference has expanded, so the downstream wait and see in the expected pullback; polyester short factories are affected by the impact of the traders of the low price, so it is difficult to realize the inventory. In terms of the operation of the terminal enterprises themselves, orders are gradually improving, but the price of grey fabric is difficult to rise, the current orders are still based on the low prices of the previous period.
In addition, there is an important reason, is the raw material side of the post-holiday performance is weak, it is not clear whether the stabilization, enterprises will be relatively cautious purchasing.
2, liquidity pressure on the raw material side
Spot liquidity of raw materials after the holiday is relatively abundant, on the one hand, PX, PTA and other segments continue to accumulate the results of the warehouse, on the other hand, also with the rhythmic atmosphere of the factory's spot purchases.
Early March PX spot futures plummeted, dragging the market mentality down, and the reason for the plunge, is the pressure of spot liquidity. px from the end of last year began to gradually accumulate inventory, the development of the East China part of the delivery warehouse is now close to full of the state, the market sentiment has exploded, the spot into a pattern of discount.
PTA facing a similar situation, the end of last year also began to gradually accumulate inventory, but in December by the cold wave logistics, warehouse curing factors such as disturbances, January and polyester plant replenishment factors support, so the initial period has not been realized, until after the holiday purchasing atmosphere fell, the market mentality began to decline.
MEG in fact, the initial performance is still good, due to the spring festival period dock shipments better, this year into the history of the first non-tired inventory of the spring festival, but the polyester plant to complete the raw material stocking, after the festival the market atmosphere also fell back. From the supply and demand point of view theoretically in March is still in the pattern of going to the warehouse, but the spot atmosphere with no movement, forward and import concerns, so the mindset has gradually weakened.
2024 contract negotiations, or based on the supply and demand sides of the intense game, or want to wrestle through the spot market to fight for the idea of efficiency, the final result is the proportion of raw material contracts have appeared to varying degrees of compression, which on the one hand, resulting in the liquidity pressure brought about by the shippers, on the other hand, changes in the pace of the factory stocking, but also more likely to cause a significant adjustment in the supply and demand side.
Therefore, the current market situation is: the raw material side waiting for polyester plant replenishment, in order to alleviate the liquidity impact, while the polyester plant to digest the raw material stockpile; polyester plant waiting for more production and sales volume, in order to gradually alleviate the pressure on inventories, in order to nearly enhance the load.
Now look, unless the crude oil commodities out of the super-expected strong market, or other factors such as oil demand interference, otherwise the short term, the polyester industrial chain to solve the problem from their own, I'm afraid that we still have to start from the inventory into the hand. Theoretically filament short fiber is approaching the inflection point of the inventory, and even have begun to go to the inventory, but to speed up the process, may still need to continue to work.
