Domestically, central bank governor Pan Gongsheng: there is still room to cut the standard in the future; Ministry of Commerce: promote consumer goods to replace the old with the new; Ministry of Finance: 2024 will strengthen the coordination of financial resources, and appropriately expand the scale of financial expenditure; in the first two months of this year, the total value of China's imports and exports of goods trade is 6.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year. Among them, exports 3.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.3%; China's CPI in February rose 0.7% year-on-year, for the first time in six months to turn positive, PPI year-on-year decline expanded to 2.7%.
Overseas, U.S. durable goods orders in January plunged 6.1%, the largest drop in April 2020; U.S. February ISM service sector index 52.6, expected 53, 53.4 in January; Bowers testified in the House of Representatives: this year may be suitable for interest rate cuts, the Fed needs to be more confident about inflation in order to cut interest rates; U.S. non-farm payrolls added 275,000 jobs in February, more than expected, hourly earnings fell sharply, the unemployment rate unexpectedly Unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a two-year high. Eurostat released data showing that PPI fell 8.6% year-on-year in January, a larger decline than the expected -8.1%; ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged and lowered economic and inflation expectations; Japanese media: the BOJ is considering abandoning the YCC in March and ending negative interest rates.
On the energy front, coal: loose supply and weak demand, coal prices continue to dip slightly. Natural gas: European voluntary gas conservation measures expire at the end of March, the European gas rebound; pipeline gas supply remains stable, LNG supplies are abundant, the European temperature is higher than the same period in history, the European gas prices are cautiously short. Crude oil: Oil price oscillated on the weak side, short-term into a stalemate. There is no news to guide the market for the time being, and both sides are in a stalemate. WTI made a number of unsuccessful attempts to hit the 80-point level, and then slightly retraced its steps.
Polyester raw material
Last week, polyester raw material end oscillated weakly, especially PX fell significantly. Specifically, crude oil and naphtha were relatively stable last week, while PX was mainly dragged down by the inventory, last week's futures and spot were significantly lower, and PXN was further narrowed to Friday, PXN has been compressed to US$292.5/ton. From the supply and demand point of view, PX domestic load at 85% near, although part of the device has maintenance plan, but PX load is still at a relatively high level, and the downstream PTA is also facing the pressure of exhaustion of inventory. PX itself in the continued exhaustion of inventory, the supplier shipment pressure is relatively large, the formation of the PX price of the obvious suppression. In the short term, if there is no new good, PX prices will still be weak oscillation.
PTA, affected by the cost side, prices oscillated weakly last week. However, thanks to the PX side of the concession, PTA processing difference basically maintained at 400 yuan / ton on. Basis difference, February's PTA inventory has not yet digested, spot liquidity, coupled with individual traders actively shipments, last week's PTA basis difference decline is also more obvious. Load, last week, the PTA load rose slightly to 84% near the follow-up repair is relatively clear Yinglex and Fuhaitron, for PTA factories, the current processing differential of 400 yuan / ton or more is still acceptable, the other device repair is still a variable. It is expected that in March PTA still have accumulated pressure, short-term price fluctuations in line with the cost of MEG, by the expected growth in imports and other factors were influenced by last week's ethylene glycol prices were weak oscillations. Although the March glycol supply and demand to warehouse is still more than 100,000 tons, but the increase in imports to the ship suppressed the market mentality. In the short term, it is expected that the center of gravity of ethylene glycol prices is mainly oscillating.
Polyester Product Side
Polyester product prices followed the cost slightly lower last week, the overall efficiency has improved. In terms of production and sales, polyester yarn production and sales in Jiangsu and Zhejiang improved last week, and last Monday there was a concentrated release of 7-day average production and sales estimates in the vicinity of 7-8%; polyester short production and sales basically remained below 5 percent. Terminal, downstream bulking, weaving, printing and dyeing operating rate has been restored close to last year's relatively high level. While the terminal demand has recovered, polyester load has also risen to 89%. In terms of efficiency, last week polyester yarn pre-spinning efficiency is generally better, the efficiency of large factories plus bullet repair; to last Friday, polyester bottle chips processing difference repair to nearly 600 yuan / ton, straight polyester short processing difference repair to more than 800 yuan / ton. However, the polyester product inventory did not appear to effectively remove, along with the terminal demand repair and polyester factory promotional action, polyester product sales are expected to gradually improve.
Outlook
Overall, last week, under the PX concessions, PTA-polyester segment efficiency is still relatively good. The polyester raw material side is mainly dragged down by the inventory, under the abundant circulation of the spot, the price trend is relatively weak. Polyester products in the lack of cost support and inventory is relatively high, the market mentality cautious. The market is concerned about the polyester production and sales and PTA device maintenance situation.
